Lead Ingot Trading Gradually Recovers, Lead Prices Fluctuate Upward [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary]

Futures Market:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,004/mt, briefly touching a high of $2,014/mt during the Asian session. Entering the European session, LME lead came under pressure due to a stronger US dollar, dipping to a low of $1,985.5/mt and finally closing at $1,988.5/mt, down 0.9%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2503 contract opened at 17,060 yuan/mt, briefly touching a low of 17,015 yuan/mt in early trading. By the end of the session, it edged up to a high of 17,090 yuan/mt and closed at 17,055 yuan/mt, down 0.2%.

》Click to View SMM Lead Spot Historical Prices

Macro:

US Fed Vice Chair Jefferson stated that even with an interest rate cut of 100 basis points, the Fed's rates would remain at restrictive levels. US Treasury Secretary Bensent noted that the US will continue to implement a "strong dollar" policy.

Spot Fundamentals:

Yesterday, there were few quotes in the Shanghai market. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, JCC lead was quoted at 17,140-17,200 yuan/mt, with a premium of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2503 contract. Quotes for secondary refined lead were also limited, with mainstream tax-inclusive ex-factory prices showing a premium of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price. SHFE lead continued to fluctuate upward, with its center moving higher. Suppliers quoted prices accordingly, but due to regional supply differences, spot price spreads between the northern and southern regions were significant. Meanwhile, downstream enterprises were still gradually resuming production. Operating enterprises showed weak purchase willingness due to high lead prices, resulting in poor spot order transactions.

Inventory: On February 6, LME lead inventory increased by 150 mt to 221,325 mt, up 0.07%. As of February 6, total social inventory of SMM lead ingots across five regions reached 43,500 mt, up by 4,400 mt compared to January 23 and by 4,300 mt compared to January 27.

》Click to View SMM Metal Industry Chain Database

Lead Price Forecast Today:

Following the Chinese New Year holiday, upstream and downstream enterprises in the lead industry chain are gradually resuming operations, especially with the recovery of logistics and transportation, leading to a gradual revival in lead ingot trading. Next week, being the week prior to the delivery of the SHFE lead 2502 contract, lead ingot delivery volumes may continue to transfer to social warehouses. Additionally, downstream enterprises are expected to fully resume normal operations after the Lantern Festival, bringing certain rigid demand. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate upward.